The leader of the Colts’ offense Reggie Wayne, Mr. Dependable, was one of the team’s most consistent receiving threats in 2012, and has been since his earlier NFL days.
Still, a recent study done by Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus may be an indicator that Wayne significantly underachieved last season in terms of his touchdown total.
Clay calculates a stat he calls “oTD” or Opportunity-adjusted Touchdowns. This basically looks at where a receiver catches the ball on the field, his likelihood of scoring a touchdown. He also calculates “tADEZ” or average distance from the end zone when the receiver was targeted.
Based on these two numbers, Clay discovered that Reggie Wayne should have scored 10 touchdowns last year based on his targets and average distance from the end zone.
Wayne’s tADEZ or average distance from the end zone when he was targeted was 44.2, and according to the research, his five touchdowns were just half as many as he could have had last season. Wayne was targeted last year in the end zone a total of 15 times, but caught only four of the passes.
His differential of 4.9 oTD and actual TD was third highest in the league last year, behind Calvin Johnson (6.2) and Brian Hartline (5.9). Wayne was targeted 179 times last season, and was one of Andrew Luck’s most reliable and consistent targets. He figures to be the same again this season.
Like I’ve said in previous posts, Wayne should be an 8-10 touchdown player this season, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he wound up finding the end zone a lot more with better chemistry between him and the young signal caller.